Newsom or Harris? Polls show Democrats vying for 2028 nomination

The Democratic Party is beginning to shape the landscape for the 2028 U.S. presidential elections, with early polls placing Vice President Kamala Harris and California Governor Gavin Newsom among the frontrunners for the nomination. However, the results from various polling firms show a dynamic race with no clear leader, and methodologies significantly influence the outcomes.

As the Democratic National Committee organizes the primary calendar, multiple surveys have measured voter intentions. These polls reveal a competitive internal contest where the standings of potential candidates fluctuate. For instance, an Emerson College Polling survey conducted in late July showed former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg leading with 19% of the vote, followed by Newsom at 17% and Harris at 8% among Democratic voters.

The scenario shifted in other polls. A McLaughlin & Associates study from mid-July placed Harris ahead with 28%, followed by Newsom at 17% and Buttigieg at 8%. Similarly, Quantus Insights also found Harris in the lead, securing 35.5% of the vote, compared to Newsom's 17.7% and Buttigieg's 12.9%. Despite these variations, all three, Harris, Newsom, and Buttigieg, consistently appear as the most supported figures within the party across these different surveys.

Other Democratic figures have also been included in these early assessments. The Emerson College poll indicated that Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez each garnered 13% support, placing them behind the leading contenders. These polls offer a preliminary glimpse into the potential contenders and the shifting dynamics within the Democratic Party as it looks toward the 2028 election cycle.