Nicaraguan Exiles Propose Two-Year Transition to Democracy

Nicaraguan opposition organizations in exile have outlined a comprehensive plan for a democratic transition, envisioning a two-year process to end the current regime led by Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo. This proposal, titled 'Nicaragua: Orderly Transition from Dictatorship to Democracy,' aims to restore institutionalidad and democratic governance through a temporary governing body, a constituent assembly, and free elections.

The roadmap details the establishment of a 60-member National Constituent Assembly tasked with drafting a new constitution. It also calls for a transitional junta to guide the country back to democracy, the repeal of the current Political Constitution, the release of all political prisoners, and the safe return of exiled and banished citizens. Free and fair elections are slated to occur within 24 months of the transition's commencement.

Opposition leader Juan Sebastián Chamorro justified the initiative, stating it is necessary because the current regime has a "dynastic transition plan" to pass power to their children. He believes it is crucial for the opposition to proactively develop a transition vision, demonstrating to the Nicaraguan people and the international community that a responsible opposition exists, prepared for the inevitable collapse of the dictatorship and the subsequent opening for democracy.

The proposed transition emphasizes an orderly, peaceful, and non-violent process. Its core objectives include dismantling authoritarian structures, re-establishing democracy, and ensuring political and social stability, economic continuity, legal certainty, and civilian control over the armed forces. The plan also guarantees respect for human rights, the rule of law, and freedoms for all Nicaraguans, including the restitution of political, civil, and patrimonial rights for those affected by the Sandinista executive, such as the recently denationalized Nicaraguans.

This transition process is structured around four main components: a transitional junta or technical team with limited executive and legislative powers; the National Constituent Assembly; legal and institutional reforms to dismantle authoritarian and repressive structures; and free, competitive, transparent, and observed general elections to facilitate the transfer of power to democratically elected authorities. A leader in exile noted that realizing this proposal requires a shift in the balance of power against the current regime, a change that is already beginning.