Nigeria governs without census for 20 years, elections loom

Nigeria is grappling with a significant governance deficit, having gone two decades without a national census. This prolonged absence of official population data leaves policymakers, investors, and citizens reliant on projections, hindering effective planning and resource allocation.

The last census in 2006 predates substantial demographic shifts, including rapid population growth, urbanization, and migration. Despite repeated government promises, conducting a new headcount has been repeatedly postponed. The National Population Commission (NPC), tasked with this crucial exercise, faces a confluence of obstacles: insufficient funding, security threats, logistical complexities, and the inherent political sensitivities surrounding population counts.

Beyond mere numbers, a census in Nigeria is a highly charged event. Population figures directly influence national planning, infrastructure development, political representation, and the equitable distribution of resources. This makes census exercises prone to intense scrutiny, often raising questions about credibility, methodology, and regional interests, transforming a technical task into a politically charged one.

The lack of updated data forces all levels of government to plan based on assumptions. Decisions about building schools, hospitals, and public utilities are made without concrete evidence of need. This uncertainty is particularly acute in fast-growing urban centers where infrastructure is already strained. Ironically, billions of naira have already been allocated and spent on preparations, yet the census remains elusive.