Nigeria Moves to End Conflicting Economic Projections

Nigeria’s government is moving to bring its economic forecasts under one framework after inconsistent assumptions across ministries and agencies contributed to budget under-performance. The Economic Management Team approved a high-level inter-agency committee to harmonise the projections used in national budgeting and economic planning.

The committee will align forecasts for crude oil prices and production, the exchange rate, inflation and non-oil revenue. It will also address discrepancies in the reporting of key economic indicators within government and in official communications to investors, development partners and the public.

The decision followed a joint budget retreat and technical validation workshop, according to a statement from the Ministry of Finance. The reform is intended to improve the credibility of the budget and coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities.

The Economic Management Team, chaired by Finance Minister and Coordinating Minister of the Economy Taiwo Oyedele, also approved changes to its governance structure. Its mandate will now include regular reviews of macroeconomic performance, closer fiscal and monetary policy coordination, monitoring of the Renewed Hope Agenda and periodic assessments of the federal government’s financing needs. The team will meet monthly rather than periodically.

The Federal Ministry of Finance will serve as the coordinating custodian of Nigeria’s official economic data. Other agencies will provide sector-specific information for harmonised public releases.

The team pointed to improving economic indicators. It said gross domestic product grew 4.43% year on year in the second quarter of 2026, the strongest quarterly growth since the third quarter of 2024. External reserves had risen above $54 billion, their highest level in almost 18 years, while the naira had strengthened to the N1,300-per-dollar range, its strongest level in about two years.

The team also cited Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market Index, effective Sept. 21, 2026, and said the move would support investor confidence and the international visibility of the capital market. It said public debt remained below 40% of GDP and noted that Moody’s had upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook from stable to positive. The team also reviewed plans to make agriculture a major driver of the government’s ambition to build a $1 trillion economy by 2030, including efforts to reduce post-harvest losses.