Nigeria's economy grows 3.89% in Q1 amid lower oil output

Nigeria's economy demonstrated a robust recovery in the first quarter of 2026, expanding by 3.89% year-on-year. This growth surpasses the 3.13% recorded in the first quarter of 2025, signaling continued economic momentum. The expansion was primarily fueled by the non-oil sector, which now constitutes 96.08% of the real Gross Domestic Product, a slight increase from 96.03% in the prior year.

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Gross Domestic Product grew by 3.89 per cent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the 3.13 per cent recorded in the first quarter of 2025.

Key sectors contributing to this performance include agriculture, which saw a significant jump in growth to 3.15% from 0.07% a year earlier. Telecommunications, financial services, construction, and trade also played vital roles. The services sector, the largest component of the economy, contributed 57.73% to GDP, a marginal increase from 57.50% in Q1 2025.

However, the oil sector experienced a decline in production, averaging 1.55 million barrels per day in Q1 2026, down from 1.62 million barrels per day in the same period of 2025. Despite this, the oil sector itself recorded a real growth of 2.57%, an improvement from 1.87% a year prior. Its overall contribution to total real GDP marginally decreased to 3.92% from 3.97%.

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The nation in the first quarter of 2026 recorded an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd), lower than the daily average production of 1.62 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2025 and lower than the fourth quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.58 mbpd.

In nominal terms, the aggregate GDP reached N110.79 trillion in Q1 2026, up from N94.05 trillion in Q1 2025, representing a 17.79% year-on-year increase. The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the non-oil sector's performance was bolstered by telecommunications, crop production, trade, cement manufacturing, financial institutions, real estate, construction, and road transportation.

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The non-oil economy contributed 96.08 per cent to real GDP during the quarter, slightly above the 96.03 per cent recorded in the same period of 2025.