Nigeria’s economy recovering after painful reforms —NRS

Nigeria's economy is demonstrating robust signs of recovery and accelerated growth, emerging from a period of acute macroeconomic distress due to "painful" reforms initiated by President Bola Tinubu's administration. An internal report by the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) indicates the economy is moving toward a more stable and resilient foundation.

The reforms targeted four major distortions inherited by the administration: a fiscally unsustainable fuel subsidy regime, an opaque foreign exchange system, a underperforming oil sector, and a tax base significantly below its potential. Despite initial economic hardships, the NRS report highlights key indicators now pointing toward recovery. These include declining inflation, an improved balance of payments, increased oil production, higher tax collections, and positive shifts in the country's productive base.

Significant progress has been noted across various sectors. The minimum wage has doubled between 2023 and 2026. Policies aimed at reducing the number of out-of-school children have reportedly lowered the figure from 20 million to 18.3 million, according to UNICEF estimates. Furthermore, the "naira-for-crude" arrangement with Dangote Refinery and other local refineries has positioned Nigeria as a net exporter of petroleum products, ending decades of import dependency.

Oil production has seen a substantial increase, rising from approximately 1.2–1.3 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.73 million barrels per day by July 2026, meeting 104% of the country's OPEC quota. The capital market has also reflected the improved economic outlook, with the Nigerian Exchange's market capitalization soaring from N30.36 trillion in 2023 to N161 trillion in 2026. This rally is partly attributed to enhanced macroeconomic credibility, banking sector recapitalization, and a growing pool of domestic institutional investment.

Tax collections have more than doubled, increasing from N12.3 trillion in 2023 to N27.1 trillion as of July 2026. This surge is credited to the digitization of tax systems, the implementation of four new tax reform laws, the transformation of the revenue service, and an executive order designed to close loopholes. Economic growth has climbed from 2.74% in 2023 to 3.8% in the first half of 2026, while external reserves have dramatically increased from $3.99 billion in 2023 to $51.9 billion by July 2026. The balance of payments has shifted from a $3.34 billion deficit to a $2.38 billion surplus in the first quarter of 2026, and Nigeria's trade position has improved significantly.