Nigeria sees Africa's sharpest petrol price hike amid Middle East conflict

Nigeria faced the most significant increase in petrol prices across Africa in the first half of 2026, with pump prices jumping 39.5%. This surge, detailed in the Nigeria Half-Year Downstream Industry Report by the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN), was attributed to global crude oil supply disruptions stemming from the Middle East conflict.

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During the first half of 2026, severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked immediate supply anxieties, injecting a heavy risk premium that drove international crude benchmarks past $100/bbl.

The conflict, which began in February 2026, created market uncertainty and drove crude oil prices past $100 per barrel. Shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz forced oil tankers to take longer routes, nearly doubling voyage times and escalating transportation costs worldwide. MEMAN highlighted that the "severe geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sparked immediate supply anxieties, injecting a heavy risk premium that drove international crude benchmarks past $100/bbl."

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This price surge was quickly compounded as the conflict bottlenecked traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing maritime oil tankers to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope and stretching what is typically an 18-day voyage into a nearly 40-day journey.

Nigeria's deregulated petrol market directly transmitted these global price shocks to consumers. The report noted that Nigeria's 39.5% gasoline price surge was the sharpest in Africa, significantly exceeding increases in countries like Egypt. However, the period also marked a major shift in Nigeria's downstream petroleum industry, with domestic refining capacity expanding rapidly. The operational scale-up of the Dangote Refinery, in particular, substantially reduced the nation's reliance on imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), with local refining share increasing from 38.9% in 2025 to 81.7% during the review period.

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Operating under a newly deregulated system, Nigeria experienced an immediate price transmission at the pumps. Data from the height of the crisis revealed that Nigeria recorded a 39.5 per cent gasoline price surge, the sharpest increase across Africa, more than doubling the price jumps seen in regional peers like Egypt (14.3 per cent).