North Korea sends troops to Russia, potentially bolstering Ukraine war effort

North Korea has reportedly sent troops to Russia's Kursk region in late 2024, with international officials estimating an initial deployment of 14,000-15,000 soldiers to aid Russia's war in Ukraine. Ukrainian and international intelligence agencies now suspect North Korea is planning to send an additional 30,000 to 50,000 troops.

Adding to the concern, Ukrainian officials state that North Korean ballistic missiles are being launched from Russian territory. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has voiced apprehension, suggesting that North Korea's enhanced combat and weapons experience could present a security threat not only to Ukraine but also to the Asia-Pacific region.

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These forces could free up Russian occupational forces. Russia would then be able to deploy around 15,000 troops to battles along front lines in Vovchansk, Kharkiv, Sumy or even Chernihiv.

Military and political expert Oleksandr Kovalenko, from the Ukrainian Center for Security Studies, offered a measured view. He suggested that new North Korean troops would likely be tasked with securing Russia's border territories, potentially freeing up Russian forces for front-line battles. Kovalenko does not anticipate North Korean troops engaging directly in combat on Ukrainian soil.

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It's one thing to recapture Russian territory. It's an entirely different thing to be present on internationally recognized Ukrainian territory, taking part in a war of aggression. Diplomatically speaking, those are two entirely different concepts.

Russian military analyst Ruslan Leviev concurred, stating that while recapturing Russian territory is one matter, fighting on internationally recognized Ukrainian territory constitutes a different diplomatic and military concept. Leviev also noted a lack of concrete evidence for a substantial North Korean military presence, suggesting Russia possesses sufficient troops. Economist Janis Kluge's report indicates Russia continues to recruit approximately 1,000 contract soldiers daily.

Intelligence regarding North Korea's short- and medium-range ballistic missiles, the KN-23 and KN-24, is more concrete. Ukraine's Main Directorate of Intelligence (HUR) reports that North Korea has delivered 148 such missiles since 2025. In July, Zelenskyy stated that one of these missiles struck a home near Kryvyi Rih, killing five people. The HUR recently reported a North Korean missile unit deploying to Russia's Voronezh region, potentially to be equipped with 120 ballistic missiles.

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If you look at the front line, you can see that Russia's forces have been fairly active since mid-July. That's a clear sign they still have enough forces.