Norway’s Defense Industry Must Be Built for Tomorrow’s Wars

Norway’s government should put its existing defense industry strategy aside and rethink it from the ground up, former parliamentarian Christian Tybring-Gjedde writes.

The government announced in 2024 that it had begun updating the 2021 strategy and initially promised to present it in autumn 2025. The timetable slipped, and the strategy was still absent when parliament considered the revised long-term defense plan in June 2026. The government now says it will submit a separate white paper this autumn, raising expectations.

Tybring-Gjedde argues that an updated strategy too often means doing more of the same. He says the new document should start with how future wars will be fought, rather than simply expanding today’s defense industry. Technological change is moving quickly, he writes, and industrial policy must reflect it.

The war in Ukraine has revealed the outlines of a new form of warfare, according to the author. Drones are being used in huge numbers, while artificial intelligence, sensors and software are becoming more important. Electronic warfare can cripple communications and navigation, commercial technology can be adapted quickly for military use, and production speed, volume and the ability to replace destroyed systems are increasingly decisive.

That means military strength will depend on more than the number of fighter jets, frigates or tanks. It will increasingly depend on detecting, understanding, deciding and acting faster than an opponent. Tybring-Gjedde says a small Norwegian company with leading expertise in optics, sensors, artificial intelligence or autonomous technology could be as strategically important as a large traditional defense supplier. But the armed forces must be able to find those companies.

Many smaller technology firms have limited access to information about future procurements, requirements and schedules. They also lack forums for demonstrating their technology. If they must know the right people or work as subcontractors for established suppliers, he warns, the armed forces may miss technology that already exists in Norway.