Norwegian wind power expected to produce less electricity than forecast

Norway’s wind farms are expected to produce less electricity under normal conditions than previously estimated, prompting the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate to revise its annual forecast for a second time.

NVE now projects normal wind-power production at 15.2 terawatt-hours a year, down from 15.9 TWh. Last year, it cut the estimate by about 1 TWh to 15.9 TWh. The agency said it now has actual production data from more power plants and across more years, allowing it to make what it described as more realistic estimates.

“More realistic production estimates can provide a better basis for budgeting,” said Magnus Buvik, a section manager at NVE. He added that output will still vary from year to year, and that unplanned downtime or low winds can reduce production further.

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We do this to ensure that the estimates become more realistic.

The change particularly affects the NO3 price area, covering Trøndelag, Møre og Romsdal and parts of Vestland and Innlandet, and NO4, covering Nordland, Troms and Finnmark. The estimates can influence municipal forecasts for future wind-power revenues because host municipalities receive a production fee of a few øre per kilowatt-hour.

NVE listed several possible reasons for the gap between expected and actual output. Nordic atmospheric conditions may cause established simulation methods to overestimate production. The agency also cited underestimated icing losses, imprecise wind measurements and errors in turbine production curves. Operators’ decisions during periods of low electricity prices and their participation in balancing markets can also affect output.

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More realistic production estimates can provide a better basis for budgeting.