Not Escaping, But Being Pushed Out: How the U.S. is Losing Ground in the Middle East

The Middle East is undergoing a profound transformation, moving away from the era of unquestioned American dominance that shaped the post-World War II global order. Iran's assertion that the Strait of Hormuz will never return to its past significance reflects a broader regional sentiment: the old Middle East, once a primary arena for American power projection, is now a thing of the past.

This shift is a stark departure from the mid-20th century. The foundations of modern Middle Eastern order were laid during a 1945 meeting between U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt and Saudi King Abdulaziz aboard the USS Quincy. Subsequent events, including U.S. support for Israel's establishment in 1948 and the CIA's role in overthrowing Iran's Mohammad Mossadegh in 1953, further cemented American influence. The 1956 Suez Crisis, where the U.S. intervened to halt British and French military action, signaled the decline of European powers and the ascendance of American hegemony.

The region became a key battleground in the Cold War, initially a site of competition between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. However, the 1967 Six-Day War, resulting in Israel's significant territorial gains, provided the U.S. with a strong regional ally. The 1973 Fourth Arab-Israeli War and the subsequent oil shock proved to be a turning point. While the U.S. navigated the post-Vietnam era by establishing the petrodollar system, linking oil transactions exclusively to U.S. dollars, and securing Saudi Arabia's security, the Soviet Union, reliant on oil revenues, squandered its resources, ultimately contributing to its collapse.

Despite declaring a pivot away from the Middle East towards the Asia-Pacific under the Obama administration, and subsequent actions by the Biden administration, the U.S. has found itself increasingly entangled. Former President Trump's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal in 2018 and his brokering of the Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and some Arab nations, have inadvertently fueled regional tensions, contributing to the current Gaza conflict and broader Iran-related instability. Strategists have long argued for reduced U.S. involvement due to the region's diminishing strategic value, but deep entanglements, particularly the dollar's link to Middle Eastern oil and the perceived strategic importance of Israel's security and the containment of Iran, have kept the U.S. deeply invested. The recent formation of the 'Mecca Joint Defense Pact' by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signals a move away from U.S.-led security frameworks, suggesting that the U.S. is not merely being held back in the Middle East, but is actively being pushed out.