NYT: The weak link in the US-Iran deal - Danger from the Israel-Hezbollah conflict

A preliminary peace agreement between the United States and Iran teetered on the brink of collapse just as it was set to take effect, threatened by escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The clashes in Lebanon, once considered a secondary front, have now emerged as a primary impediment to a lasting ceasefire in the Middle East. This escalation led to the cancellation of a planned round of talks between American and Iranian officials in Switzerland, with sources indicating Tehran withdrew from negotiations due to Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Mohanad Hage Ali, a senior researcher at the Carnegie Middle East Center, stated, "The new leadership of Iran considers Lebanon an integral part of its national security." He added, "For Iran, the ultimate goal is Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon."

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The new leadership of Iran considers Lebanon an integral part of its national security. For Iran, the ultimate goal is Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon.

This marks the second time talks have been disrupted by tensions on the border. Earlier in June, Israeli strikes on Beirut's suburbs prompted Iranian missile attacks, to which Israel responded with extensive strikes within Iran. The talks' suspension followed the signing of a preliminary deal aimed at ending the US-Iran war, which included provisions for an "immediate and permanent cessation of military operations" and a commitment to preserving Lebanon's "territorial integrity and sovereignty."

The inclusion of Lebanon in the agreement was seen as a diplomatic victory for Iran, which insisted on its inclusion due to its close ties with Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reacted strongly, vowing to continue military operations. Despite this, Israel's ambassador to the US, Yehiel Leiter, stated his country was committed to an immediate ceasefire, though operations in southern Lebanon continue "to neutralize Hezbollah."

Questions linger about the agreement's implementation, as neither Israel nor Hezbollah signed the memorandum, leaving compliance uncertain. The US, under President Donald Trump, is reportedly concerned that ongoing Israeli attacks could undermine the deal, with Trump having expressed disappointment to Netanyahu and urged a reduction in military operations. While Israel has reduced the frequency of its attacks, clashes persist. Hezbollah announced an ambush on Israeli troops near Nabatieh, resulting in four soldiers' deaths, while Israel responded with over 150 strikes, causing at least 47 deaths according to Lebanon's Ministry of Health.

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The Israeli ambassador to the U.S., Yehiel Leiter, stated that his country had committed to an immediate ceasefire, although operations in southern Lebanon continue "to neutralize Hezbollah."