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Two years after a significant uprising, Bangladesh's democratic transition appears increasingly fragile, with speakers lamenting the decline of post-uprising unity and women's political participation. The expected improvements in political parties' conduct and electoral democracy have not materialized, according to a discussion organized by the BRAC Institute of Governance and Development (BIGD) and BRAC University.

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The movement’s attempt at a ‘post-ideological’ middle ground faltered as right-wing positions gained ground and the Left was sidelined. The country reverted to majoritarian politics, failing to build a centrist alternative.

The report "The State of Governance in Bangladesh 2026 Report: Rupture, Reform, and Reimagining Democracy" highlighted the collapse of broad unity within the National Citizen Committee due to sharp ideological divisions. Mahfuj Alam, a former adviser to the interim government, stated that the movement's attempt at a "post-ideological" middle ground failed as right-wing positions gained traction and the Left was marginalized. He criticized establishment figures and senior advisers for undermining the prospects of a sustainable political alternative by treating the movement's collective power as spoils to be divided.

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Instead of reform, factions splintered under the influence of establishment figures and senior advisers, who treated the movement’s collective power as spoils to be divided, undermining the prospects for a sustainable political alternative.

Mirza M Hassan, an adviser at BIGD, presented a stark assessment of the current political landscape, describing Bangladesh as having the weakest opposition in its history. He noted the absence of the Awami League from politics, the lack of confidence in Jamaat, and the marginal role of the NCP. Hassan argued that democracy would remain fragile even if Bangladesh mirrored democratic practices in Sri Lanka or India, as elites and oligarchs would continue to control power. He proposed a move towards "direct democracy" with constitutional provisions for citizen participation.

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The Awami League is absent from politics, Jamaat lacks confidence, and the NCP remains a very small party.

Politician Tasnim Jara pointed to organized digital violence and character assassination against women within a "rigged" political system. She warned that elite-driven transitions often disregard public sentiment, leaving women vulnerable to coordinated attacks and emphasizing the need to dismantle structures excluding women from decision-making. Dr. Tajnuva Jabeen stressed the importance of establishing a "minimum common ground" across ideological divides for peaceful transitions, suggesting that the "July effect" might make it harder for parties to exclude women from future leadership roles.

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The July effect” will make it harder for political parties to exclude women from decision-making roles in future elections.