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Experts are advising Bangladesh to closely examine international experiences, particularly Pakistan's rapid adoption of rooftop solar power, to navigate challenges in energy security, affordability, and sustainability. This recommendation comes as Bangladesh seeks to expand its own rooftop solar capacity while grappling with rising electricity costs and existing power sector overcapacity.

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Pakistan has experienced one of the world’s fastest expansions of distributed solar power, driven largely by consumers rather than government programmes.

A dialogue in Dhaka, titled “Solar Revolution in Pakistan: Lessons for Bangladesh from National Budget Perspective,” highlighted Pakistan's significant growth in distributed solar power. Muhammad Basit Ghauri, manager of special initiatives at Pakistan-based Renewables First, presented data showing Pakistan imported substantial amounts of solar panels in recent fiscal years, with total solar deployment estimated between 28-38 GW. Crucially, nearly 98 percent of this capacity was installed at the distributed level, primarily on rooftops and behind consumer meters, indicating a consumer-driven expansion rather than solely government programs.

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The solar rush is not a niche urban phenomenon.

Ghauri attributed Pakistan's solar surge to several factors: sharply rising electricity tariffs, diminished confidence in the reliability of the national grid, a significant drop in global solar panel prices, and supportive policies. These policies include net metering, which allows consumers to feed surplus electricity back into the grid, and concessional financing schemes. He noted that the "solar rush" is not confined to urban areas, with millions of households, many in rural regions, adopting solar systems. Ghauri remarked, "In crisis, the grid priced itself out of the market."

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In crisis, the grid priced itself out of the market.

Turning to Bangladesh, speakers pointed out shared characteristics with Pakistan, such as a heavy reliance on imported fuels and an overcapacity issue within the power sector. This suggests Bangladesh might be approaching a critical juncture where distributed solar power could become increasingly attractive. Atikuzzaman Shazeed, a Research Associate at the Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD), noted that Bangladesh's solar journey is evolving from off-grid solutions, like its once world-leading Solar Home System (SHS) program, towards grid-connected renewable energy. However, he observed a sharp decline in SHS installations following rapid grid expansion.

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Bangladesh may be approaching its own tipping point.