OECD: Global economy to grow 2 percentage points of GDP less if Middle East crisis lasts

The global economy faces a significant growth slowdown, potentially losing over two percentage points of GDP, if the Middle East crisis continues unabated. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) projects that global GDP growth could dip below 1% between late 2025 and early 2026 under such prolonged disruption scenarios.

In its latest Outlook report, the OECD forecasts that world GDP would only increase by 2.1% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027. This is a downgrade from the 3.4% growth anticipated for 2025. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann highlighted that the 2026 forecast is four-tenths of a percentage point lower than previously expected before the conflict escalated on February 28. A specific scenario modeling the continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz shows global growth rates plummeting from over 3% in early 2025 to below 1% by the year's end.

While the report does not name specific countries, OECD Chief Economist Stefano Scarpetta indicated that Asian economies are the most vulnerable. Countries with insufficient reserves to manage potential fuel shortages and disruptions to other essential goods, such as fertilizers, are at greater risk. Scarpetta warned that the lack of fertilizer supplies from the Persian Gulf region could severely impact food security for many African nations heavily reliant on these imports.

Even with the central scenario of a swift resolution to the conflict, the OECD expects real wages to decline in one-third of its member countries this year, affecting workers' living standards. The technology sector, particularly artificial intelligence, is seen as a mitigating factor, with investment expected to double by 2027. However, Cormann cautioned that this positive trend is not immune to the shockwaves from energy market disruptions.

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