Oil price surge could raise HIV drug costs by 44%, warns Unitaid report

The cost of essential HIV medications could surge by as much as 44% due to volatile oil prices, a new report from the health organization Unitaid warns. This potential increase threatens access to treatments for millions in developing countries.

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the manufacturing costs of drugs such as the TLD treatment (tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir), used by 24 million people in developing countries, can increase by 15% if oil reaches 120 dollars per barrel, and up to 44% if the ceiling of 200 dollars is reached.

The study highlights that manufacturing costs for widely used drugs, such as the TLD treatment (tenofovir-lamivudine-dolutegravir), could rise by 15% if oil prices reach $120 per barrel. If prices climb to $200 per barrel, the cost could jump by a staggering 44%.

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for every 10% increase in the price of crude oil, there is a 3% increase in long-term manufacturing costs.

While the impact of oil price hikes on transportation is often considered, Unitaid points out that the derivatives of fossil fuels used as raw materials and solvents in pharmaceutical production are frequently overlooked. For every 10% increase in crude oil prices, manufacturing costs see a 3% long-term rise.

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decarbonize the manufacturing of treatments like TLD, which could reduce cost increases driven by oil price hikes by approximately one-third, while also reducing emissions by around 50%.

To mitigate these risks, Unitaid proposes "decarbonizing" the manufacturing process for treatments like TLD. This shift could slash cost increases driven by oil prices by approximately one-third while also reducing emissions by around 50%. Such a move could lead to savings of $70 to $100 million for global HIV programs.

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In a scenario of high oil prices, this could translate into savings of between 70 and 100 million dollars for global HIV programs.