OPEC: Africa Needs $92 Billion for Refining Investments Through 2050

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) forecasts a substantial need for refining investments across Africa, estimating that Nigeria and other nations on the continent will require approximately $92 billion by 2050. This investment is crucial for meeting growing fuel demand, bolstering energy security, and reducing reliance on imported petroleum products.

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Africa’s refining sector is entering a new phase of growth after decades of underinvestment, with Nigeria playing a central role through the fully operational Dangote Refinery and the proposed 200,000 barrels per day Akwa Ibom refinery project being developed by BUA Group, alongside several modular refining projects.

OPEC's 2026 World Oil Outlook identifies Nigeria and Angola as the primary drivers for the next phase of refining expansion in Africa. The report notes that the continent's refining sector is entering a new growth period after years of underinvestment. Nigeria is positioned to play a central role, bolstered by the fully operational Dangote Refinery and the planned 200,000 barrels per day Akwa Ibom refinery by BUA Group, alongside various modular refining projects.

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Asia-Pacific and Africa are likely to invest around $29 billion and $25 billion in the downstream sector in the medium term, respectively. In the period post-2030, global investment requirements for new refinery projects and expansions are evaluated at $423 billion. The largest share is expected in India and the Middle East, estimated at $73 billion each, followed by China and Africa, estimated at $69 billion and $67 billion, respectively.

Globally, OPEC anticipates that refining investments will total $423 billion for new projects and expansions after 2030. Asia-Pacific and Africa are expected to invest significantly in the downstream sector in the medium term, with Africa's share estimated at $25 billion. Post-2030, Africa is projected to require an additional $67 billion for new refinery projects and expansions, with India and the Middle East leading global investment.

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In total, medium-term capacity additions in Africa are expected at around 0.8 mb/d, driven mostly by modular and small-scale capacity projects. Angola and Nigeria are expected to lead the expansions.

The report emphasizes the strategic importance of expanding Africa's refining capacity. Many countries are prioritizing domestic refining to curb import dependence and enhance national energy security. OPEC specifically highlights Nigeria and Angola as key players in Africa's medium-term refining expansion, which is expected to add around 0.8 million barrels per day, largely through modular and small-scale projects. Nigeria's contribution will build on the Dangote Refinery's success, with the BUA facility and other smaller units expected to come online in the coming years.

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Nigeria is playing a key role in developing the region’s downstream sector. Following the Dangote refinery’s ramp-up to full operational capacity in February 2026, the country is set to see the 200 tb/d Akwa Ibom refinery, as well as several other small, modular units, coming online in the next few years.