Opec lowers oil demand growth forecasts for 2026

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its projection for global oil demand growth in 2026. The organization now anticipates a growth of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) year-on-year, a decrease from its July assessment, which estimated an 800,000 bpd increase.

This downward revision is primarily driven by expectations of weaker oil demand from the Asian market. Specifically, OPEC's latest monthly oil market report indicates that China, India, and other Asian nations are projected to experience slower year-on-year oil demand growth in 2026. The Asia Pacific region is also expected to see a more significant decline in its oil demand this year.

Despite the lowered forecast for 2026, OPEC has simultaneously increased its demand growth projection for 2027. The organization now estimates global oil demand will rise by approximately 2.2 million bpd year-on-year, an upward adjustment from the previous estimate of 1.9 million bpd. This higher growth forecast for 2027 is largely attributed to anticipated robust demand from Asia-related markets, including China, India, Other Asia, and the Asia Pacific region.

Furthermore, Europe is also expected to contribute to the increased demand growth in 2027, showing a larger year-on-year increase compared to previous estimates. The report highlights a divergence in short-term versus medium-term demand outlooks, with 2026 showing a slowdown, particularly in Asia, while 2027 anticipates a stronger recovery driven by the same key Asian markets and Europe.