OPEC+ weighs whether to adjust output after latest production increases

OPEC+ is weighing its next move after completing the latest stage of a plan to restore oil production cuts introduced in 2023. Ministers from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will meet by videoconference to assess whether the unsettled oil market requires another adjustment.

The seven ministers represent the countries designated to make the decision, according to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ headquarters in Vienna. Analysts expect them to leave fourth-quarter supply unchanged while they examine new quotas for 2027. Those quotas are due to be agreed in late November.

The latest increase, 188,000 barrels per day, took effect on Sept. 1. It matched the monthly increases implemented over the previous five months and completed the restoration of a 1.65 million-barrel-per-day cut agreed in 2023. OPEC+ members have gradually reversed two voluntary reductions totaling 3.85 million barrels per day.

Other cuts remain in place through Dec. 31. They cover all alliance members except Iran, Libya and Venezuela and total 2 million barrels per day. Ministers are expected to review reports on each country’s production capacity as the basis for the next quota distribution.

The negotiations could prove difficult because several key producers have suffered disruptions linked to war and shipping interruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. OPEC’s combined production in July stood 17% below its January level, before attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran triggered war. Russian output has also been affected by Ukrainian attacks on oil infrastructure.

The widening gap between official quotas and actual production could threaten the group’s cohesion. Iraq is seeking a larger quota after the United Arab Emirates left OPEC in May to gain freedom to increase supplies. Venezuela’s continued membership is also in question after the United States took control of much of its oil production.