Operation Rising Lion: One year later, was it as historic as it seemed? - analysis

One year after Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a twelve-day conflict involving strikes on Iran, its historic impact is being re-evaluated. The operation, which targeted Iran's nuclear program, was a long-anticipated move, discussed for decades and even a subject of mock university discussions in Israel regarding a post-nuclear Iran.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had spent years preparing the ground for such an action, famously presenting a diagram of a bomb at the UN. The timing of the strike, however, became a critical question, with US administrations oscillating on how to manage Iran's nuclear ambitions, whether through technological means or diplomatic deals. Regional countries also expressed concerns, but action remained elusive.

The conflict's context shifted significantly after the October 7 attacks. While Israel's focus had been on Iran and so-called "third circle" threats, the article suggests Hamas emerged as a more immediate danger, having been underestimated. Iran's uranium enrichment, a response to the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal, escalated to weaponization concerns by 2024.

Furthermore, Iran's extensive use of ballistic missiles and drones in its 2024 attacks on Israel raised new questions about the primary threat. The article posits that an intense focus on the nuclear program may have led to a lapse in vigilance regarding other threats, including Hamas, ballistic missiles, and drones. The operation also occurred with the support of the Trump administration.