Osun Election Results Match Projections, But Vote Buying Concerns Remain: Yiaga Africa

Election observer organization Yiaga Africa has stated that the official results for the 2026 Osun State governorship election accurately reflect the ballots counted at polling units. However, the group expressed significant concerns regarding widespread vote buying and voter inducement, which they believe undermine the integrity of the electorate's choices.

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Accord’s official result was 51.9 per cent, which is a match in comparison to Yiaga Africa WTV PRVT estimates.

Presenting its findings at a post-election briefing in Osogbo, Yiaga Africa's Chairperson of the Osun Election Observation Mission, Asmau Maikudi, explained that their data was based on reports from 289 of 300 sampled polling units. The organization's Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) analysis projected that the Accord Party should receive between 50.3% and 54% of the vote, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) between 1.4% and 2.1%, and the All Progressives Congress (APC) between 43% and 46.8%.

Yiaga Africa confirmed that the Independent National Electoral Commission's (INEC) declared results fell within these estimated ranges. The Accord Party officially secured 51.9% of the vote, the APC 45.2%, and the ADC 1.7%. The consistency between Yiaga Africa's statistical estimates and INEC's final figures suggests that the announced results accurately represent the ballots cast at the polling stations. "Had the results been significantly altered at the ward, LGA, or state collation centres, the official figures would have fallen outside Yiaga Africa's WTV estimated ranges," the organization noted.

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The consistency of the results, therefore, speaks specifically to the accuracy of the tabulation of polling-unit results.

Despite this consistency in result tabulation, Yiaga Africa cautioned against interpreting the finding as a complete endorsement of the election. The organization stressed that the accuracy pertains specifically to the tabulation of polling-unit results. The persistent issues of vote buying and voter inducement remain a critical concern, highlighting a potential flaw in the overall fairness and integrity of the electoral process, despite the accurate counting of votes.

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Had the results been significantly altered at the ward, LGA, or state collation centres, the official figures would have fallen outside Yiaga Africa’s WTV estimated ranges.