Özgür Özel's New Party Leads Turkish Election Polls

A newly formed political party led by Özgür Özel, the recently elected chairman of the Republican People's Party (CHP), has surged to the top of the polls in Turkey. The survey, conducted by Konsensüs Araştırma between July 4-18, 2026, involved 1012 participants across all 81 provinces. The poll asked voters to choose between a new party formed by Özel and his associates, or the CHP led by Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, in a hypothetical early election scenario. Results show Özel's new party capturing 35.2% of the vote, significantly ahead of the ruling AKP's 31.4%. The CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu garnered only 12.2%, while the DEM Party received 6.9%, MHP 4.6%, İYİ Parti 3.4%, and Zafer Partisi 2.0%. The combined vote share for Özel's new party and the CHP would reach 47.4%, suggesting a potential shift in the opposition landscape. The poll also explored presidential election scenarios. In a hypothetical contest, Ankara Mayor Mansur Yavaş is projected to win with 40.4% of the vote, surpassing President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's 34.7%. If the election goes to a second round and Istanbul Mayor Ekrem İmamoğlu is nominated, he is predicted to secure 53.4% against Erdoğan's 46.6%. Another finding indicates a potential decline for the AKP, with one question showing it below 30% and the CHP's vote share shrinking to 14.4%.