Pak-India dialogue? India's suspension of Indus Waters Treaty strains relations

For the past decade, India's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government has enforced a policy of complete disengagement with Pakistan, severing even people-to-people and sporting ties. This period has seen India conduct three "kinetic aggressions" against Pakistan, according to the article, further deepening regional estrangement while global geopolitics have shifted significantly.

Bilateral relations have been historically bedeviled by four key factors: mutual mistrust, the unresolved dispute over Jammu and Kashmir, India's alleged use of terrorism to malign Pakistan, and New Delhi's ambition for regional dominance. Most recently, India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) has exacerbated tensions, with Pakistan viewing it as a threat to its water security, as millions depend on the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab rivers. The article notes that India cannot legally suspend the treaty unilaterally and that the Court of Arbitration has already ruled against India's decision.

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Since Pakistan and India remain embroiled in kinetic confrontations below a nuclear overhang, there is an urgent need to come up with ways to defuse tensions during crises.

The article argues for the urgent need to defuse tensions, especially given that both countries possess advanced weaponry and are technically still at war following India's "Operation Sindoor" in May 2025. It suggests instituting additional communication channels beyond the weekly DGMO calls, such as regular contact between national security advisers or the return of high commissioners. The piece also points to the potential for dedicated backchannel links, recalling a 2007 formula for resolving the Kashmir dispute and suggesting a similar channel for water-sharing issues could be crucial.

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Legally, it cannot unilaterally suspend the treaty. The Court of Arbitration has already ruled that India’s decision was illegal.