Pakistan's mango exports may shrink up to 30pc as Middle East war impacts linger

Pakistan's vital mango export industry faces a significant downturn, with projections indicating a potential 30% reduction in sales this year. The lingering effects of the Middle East crisis have severely impacted demand in crucial export markets, particularly in the Gulf region, while simultaneously driving up shipping costs. This dual challenge is compounded by domestic economic pressures, as inflation stemming from the regional conflict has left local households struggling to afford the fruit, leading to depressed domestic sales.

Mango traders anticipate a substantial drop in export revenue, with estimates suggesting a decrease of around 30,000 tonnes, bringing the total export volume to approximately 80,000 tonnes. Waheed Ahmed, chief patron of the All Pakistan Fruit and Vegetable Exporter Association, noted that nearly 80% of Pakistan's mango exports typically go to the Gulf, Iran, and Afghanistan – regions currently embroiled in conflict. The closure of the border with Afghanistan and ongoing hostilities in Iran and the broader Middle East have created insurmountable obstacles for this season's trade.

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So many losses have been incurred, the contractors have even left their advance money.

The situation is particularly acute in the Sindh mango belt, a major growing region. Orchard managers like Mohammad Shakeel are concerned about their ability to recoup the substantial upfront costs of leasing orchards, with some contractors abandoning their agreements altogether due to the anticipated losses. The "king of fruits," as mangoes are known in South Asia, normally contributes significantly to Pakistan's economy, generating around $110 million in international sales annually and positioning the country as the world's fourth-largest exporter.

This crisis underscores the geopolitical vulnerabilities of Pakistan's economy, which is heavily reliant on its agriculture sector. This sector is already grappling with the adverse effects of climate change, making it increasingly susceptible to external shocks. While a preliminary agreement to halt fighting in the Middle East was announced, it arrived too late to salvage the current mango season, leaving exporters and farmers facing a financially challenging year.

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Almost 80pc of mango export is to the Gulf region, Iran and Afghanistan. The border to Afghanistan is closed, there is war in Iran… there is war in the entire Middle East.