Patriot missile license won't solve Ukraine's urgent defense needs, expert says

While the United States might approve a license for Ukraine to manufacture advanced Patriot air defense missiles, the move is unlikely to address the country's immediate critical need for protection against Russian attacks. Military expert Johan Huovinen stated that initiating production would likely take several years, offering little relief from the current onslaught. Russia's intensified missile strikes, especially against Kyiv, have exposed Ukraine's severe shortage of air defense interceptors. Although Ukraine has managed to repel most of the hundreds of Shahed drones launched by Russia, it faces greater challenges with ballistic missiles. During a recent attack on the capital, Ukraine reportedly failed to shoot down any of the 29 ballistic missiles directed at the city. Russian forces appear to be overwhelming Ukraine's air defense systems, which are deployed in a ring around Kyiv, by overloading specific sections. To counter Russia's most sophisticated weaponry, such as Iskander, Kinzhal, and Oresjnik ballistic missiles, Ukraine relies heavily on the U.S.-made Patriot system. President Zelenskyy has repeatedly appealed for more Patriot missile deliveries. He recently indicated to the Financial Times that in some instances, Patriot missile supplies were received only the day before a massive attack, suggesting critical shortages. Huovinen speculated that Ukraine's air defense might have had few, if any, advanced interceptors available during the latest assault. Reports suggest the U.S. is open to allowing Patriot production outside its borders, with Finland's Iltalehti citing NATO sources about a potential green light. Pentagon advisor Michael Duffy confirmed the U.S. is open to Patriot system production occurring abroad. However, Huovinen cautioned that the U.S. might be hesitant to share its most cutting-edge technology. Both Japan and Poland have previously received licenses to produce Patriot variants, possessing more extensive defense agreements with the U.S. than Ukraine. Regardless of any positive decisions at the upcoming NATO meeting in Ankara, Huovinen emphasized that a production license would not resolve Ukraine's urgent need to defend against ongoing Russian missile attacks.

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It would probably take several years to get production started.