Paweł Wojciechowski: Poland Risks Becoming ‘Another Romania’

For years, Poland was warned about becoming “another Greece.” The closer warning today may be Romania. The comparison is not exact, and it does not predict an imminent crisis, but the mechanism looks familiar: strong growth and relatively low debt can allow structural imbalances to persist until arithmetic takes over.

Romania appeared in the first edition of the report “Threats of Excessive Public Debt.” In 2019, its debt stood at 35% of GDP, while its structural deficit had already become high. The report later described the danger of a debt spiral as the “Romanian scenario.” Poland is now showing several similar features. Its budget deficit reached 7.3% of GDP in 2025, and the draft budget puts it at 7.1% in both 2026 and 2027. That would mark a third consecutive year above 7% of GDP, despite economic growth rather than recession.

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Romanian scenario

The problem is not simply the current debt level, but its direction. Between 2025 and 2028, Poland’s debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to rise by more than four percentage points a year. Romania’s increase between 2023 and 2025 was about five points annually. If the gap between government revenue and spending remains open during growth, nominal debt eventually rises faster than the economy. There is no guarantee that growth alone will reduce the burden.

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the lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan, domestic political challenges and the risk of pre-election fiscal easing

A report prepared with Ludwik Kotecki and Marek Skawiński says debt stabilization would require an adjustment exceeding four percentage points of GDP, roughly 166 billion zlotys. The Finance Ministry, citing Fitch, reported that the ratings agency pointed to “the lack of a credible fiscal consolidation plan, domestic political challenges and the risk of pre-election fiscal easing.” Fitch also described relations between the government and president as “uncoordinated and at times confrontational.” Presidential vetoes account for about 8 billion zlotys according to the government, leaving most of the required adjustment untouched.

The analogy has limits. Poland has a more flexible exchange rate, a smaller external deficit and most of its debt denominated in zlotys. It is therefore less exposed to a loss of external financing than Romania was. But Romania waited until pressure from the European Union and financial markets forced a faster correction. Its deficit fell from 9.3% of GDP in 2024 to a projected 6.2% in 2026, while growth slowed to 0.7% in 2025 and is expected to approach zero in 2026.

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uncoordinated and at times confrontational