Peculiar detail about Russia's "Oreshnik" revealed

Analysis of Russia's "Oreshnik" missile suggests a peculiar characteristic: its warheads may lack conventional explosives. Low-quality video footage from previous "Oreshnik" strikes in Dnipro and Lviv, dated November 2024 and January 2026 respectively, show no flashes, leading researchers to believe the warheads might be designed for kinetic impact rather than detonation. Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher at the United Nations Institute for Disarmament Research, stated, "It appears that the warheads do not contain explosives."

Podvig elaborated that the warheads likely contain heavy objects designed to inflict damage purely through kinetic energy. Konrad Muzyka of Rochan Consulting estimates that an "Oreshnik" warhead consists of 36 "kinetic penetrators" delivered by six submunitions. These penetrators reportedly lack explosive charges, relying instead on immense kinetic energy to breach or destroy targets. However, given that each "Oreshnik" missile costs tens of millions of euros, many observers, including Russians, have questioned the weapon's practicality if its warhead is composed solely of kinetic projectiles.

"This means an incredibly expensive piece of metal is simply crashing to the ground," commented Russian war blogger Vladimir Romanov on Telegram following the latest "Oreshnik" strike. He suggested this was done for "a beautiful picture that no one believes anymore (except pensioners)." The "Oreshnik" (Hazelnut) is a medium-range ballistic missile, approximately 12 meters long, with a range of 5,000 kilometers and a warhead weight exceeding one ton. It can be transported by a relatively small vehicle, and its name reportedly derives from its ability to blend into the landscape like a tree in a forest.

Warheads launched by ballistic missiles like the "Oreshnik" at high altitudes are extremely difficult to aim precisely. While precision is less critical for nuclear weapons due to their vast destructive radius, kinetic projectiles may fail to cause damage even to a large target. An open-source investigation into the damage caused by a 2024 "Oreshnik" strike on a Soviet-era rocket factory in Dnipro concluded that the warheads might not have even hit the massive factory. Photos taken a few hours after the attack showed a heavily damaged roof of an unidentifiable building, but the rest of the structure remained largely intact.

Muzyka told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that footage from a May 24 strike showed submunitions scattered over a relatively large area. He suggested this could indicate either a targeted attack on several spaced-out targets or potential limitations in the warheads' accuracy. Following a strike on Bila Tserkva, a Ukrainian war blogger claimed to have identified the impact site of one submunition, comparing the resulting crater, the size of a swimming pool, to the destructive power of an artillery shell.