Pertamax Fuel Prices Projected to Gradually Decrease Until End of 2026

An energy economics expert from Padjadjaran University, Yayan Satyaki, forecasts a gradual decrease in the price of Pertamax, a non-subsidized fuel in Indonesia. He projects the price could fall from Rp 16,250 per liter in June 2026 to a range of Rp 12,100–Rp 13,500 per liter by December 2026. Satyaki noted that the space for price reduction in non-subsidized fuels is already evident, with Dexlite and Pertamina Dex prices having already decreased.

Satyaki's projection is underpinned by an expected decline in the Indonesian Crude Price (ICP) towards $90.6 per barrel by December 2026. Concurrently, he anticipates the rupiah will strengthen from Rp 17,927 to Rp 16,959 against the U.S. dollar within the same period. These macroeconomic factors are crucial in determining the pricing of non-subsidized fuels.

He also addressed the dynamic geopolitical landscape, particularly the conflicts involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, which influence global crude oil prices. Brent crude oil prices experienced volatility, reaching $117 per barrel in April before correcting to around $78 per barrel. Prices then rose again above $80 per barrel due to increased geopolitical risks following the cancellation of planned talks between the U.S. and Iran, and renewed Israeli actions in Lebanon.

Satyaki recommended that the Indonesian government prepare scenario simulations for the ICP, ranging from $70 to $90 per barrel, given the significant uncertainty in global oil markets. He believes Indonesia's fiscal buffer remains strong enough to manage potential disruptions, such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The government has a fiscal balance fund (SAL) of approximately Rp 420 trillion and aims to maintain a deficit around 2.9 percent. A higher ICP of $90 per barrel could widen the deficit by Rp 136 trillion, while an average of $100 per barrel due to Hormuz closure could increase it by Rp 204 trillion. Satyaki emphasized that while the SAL can cover these scenarios, it serves as a one-time insurance rather than a structural solution.