Peru Keeps 2027 Growth Forecast at 3.5% Despite El Niño Risk

Peru is keeping its 2027 growth forecast at 3.5%, even as weather forecasts warn that El Niño could be strong or extraordinary. Economy Minister Elmer Cuba presented the projection during a congressional session on the proposed public budget.

Cuba said the economy was growing 3% in 2026 despite the developing climate event. He contrasted that performance with 2023, when economic activity fell 0.4% during the last El Niño event. Private investment, he said, grew 10% last year and 15% this year. Household consumption and both mining and non-mining investment were also performing strongly.

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The Peruvian economy this year, in 2026, is performing very well, growing 3% even though we have an El Niño event developing.

The proposed 2027 budget amounts to 266.506 billion soles, nearly $80 billion, a 3.5% increase from the 2026 budget. The government plans to allocate 31 billion soles, or about $9.2 billion, to public debt service and approximately 57 billion soles, or $17 billion, to public investment. Cuba said public debt stands at about 30% of gross domestic product, a level he described as compatible with favorable financial conditions.

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The economy is growing this year, on average, more than in previous years, despite El Niño, and that is something truly remarkable.

Priority sectors include the Interior, Defense, Education, and Development and Social Inclusion ministries. Vice President and Prime Minister Luis Galarreta said the budget should strengthen public safety, narrow social gaps and help create a state that functions effectively.

The proposed allocations include 15.4 billion soles for public order and security, 49.1 billion for education, 32.2 billion for health and 26 billion for transport. Security spending will focus on investigation, prosecution and expanding police patrol capacity.

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Peru needs a state that functions and arrives on time, that pursues criminals and protects citizens.