Peru's coastal El Niño event could be 'extraordinary' until 2027, experts warn

Peru's National Climate Phenomena Study Commission (ENFEN) has issued a stark warning: the coastal El Niño event is likely to persist, with a high probability of continuing until the summer of 2027. This forecast marks a significant development, as it's the first time in nearly three decades that the commission anticipates an "extraordinary" magnitude event.

From September 2026 to January 2027, the phenomenon is projected to reach extraordinary levels along the northern and central coast of Peru (Niño 1+2 region). Its intensity is expected to remain strong to extraordinary through February and March 2027. In the central equatorial Pacific (Niño 3.4 region), a very strong magnitude is anticipated from September 2026 to January 2027, peaking between November and December this year.

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This is the first time that ENFEN has forecast the occurrence of a new extraordinary event for the summer of 2027 as more probable, since the organism was reformulated at the end of 1997 during the occurrence of the extraordinary event of the Coastal El Niño of the summer of 1998.

The commission forecasts air temperatures significantly above normal along the entire coast for the September-November period, with a high chance of new records. The northern coast can expect rains exceeding normal levels, with potential for moderate episodes starting in November. Conversely, the southeastern highlands might experience below-normal rainfall, with the southwestern region seeing normal to below-normal precipitation.

While conditions in the Pacific Ocean are expected to remain normal, with river flows within typical ranges, the ENFEN notes that anchoveta fish stocks in the north-central region will likely remain concentrated near the coast. Species associated with equatorial and oceanic waters will persist in the central coast, while northern littoral species may shift further south. This projection highlights the potential for widespread impacts across various sectors in Peru.

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The probability of an extraordinary magnitude Coastal El Niño occurring for the summer of December 2026 to March 2027 off the northern and central coast of Peru is 43%, above the 40% assigned to the probability of a strong event and 16% of a moderate phenomenon.