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Poland's E-commerce to Soar as Demographics Reshape Logistics Sector
🇵🇱 Poland /Economy & Trade

Poland's E-commerce to Soar as Demographics Reshape Logistics Sector

From Rzeczpospolita · () Polish

Translated from Polish, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.

At a glance

News Named sources Context piece
  • Poland's e-commerce market is projected to grow significantly, despite a declining population, driven by changing household structures and increased single-person households.
  • A shrinking working-age population and a growing elderly demographic will alter consumption patterns and boost online retail, with e-commerce expected to double in the next decade.
  • The logistics sector must adapt to a future where labor availability is no longer a primary growth driver, necessitating automation and strategic investment in warehouse properties.

Poland is entering a new economic phase where demographics, not just background factors, will shape business decisions and the commercial real estate market. Experts from JLL highlight that despite a projected population decrease of 1.2 million by 2035, the number of households is expected to rise by 200,000 due to a trend of smaller living arrangements.

Poland is entering a stage where demographics are no longer a background for business decisions, but one of the main factors shaping the economy and the commercial real estate market.

— JLL expertsDescribing the impact of demographic shifts on Poland's economy.

This demographic shift, particularly the rise of single-person households and "empty nesters," will sustain consumer demand and the need for efficient logistics and warehouse space. However, a significant challenge emerges from the rapid decline of the 25-44 age group, crucial for both consumption and the labor market. This demographic is expected to shrink by 2 million by 2035, while the proportion of citizens over 65 will increase substantially.

A decrease in population does not automatically mean a proportional decrease in demand.

— JLL analystsExplaining how changing household structures will sustain consumption despite population decline.

E-commerce is poised for explosive growth, with JLL estimating a 106% increase, or approximately 97 billion PLN, over the next decade. This surge, coupled with the changing age structure influencing purchasing habits, will redefine the logistics landscape. The era of growth fueled by cheap labor is ending.

In the next ten years, e-commerce will grow by 106 percent, or about 97 billion PLN.

— JLLEstimating the future growth of the online retail market in Poland.

"Demographics is not a risk that appears suddenly. It is a megatrend that can be modeled well in advance," states Jan Jakub Zombirt, head of JLL's research department. He emphasizes that the next ten years are critical for the commercial real estate market to translate this demographic knowledge into investment, location, and product decisions. Post-2035, these trends will intensify, impacting labor supply, demand geography, and asset resilience, offering a competitive advantage to those who adapt their strategies early.

Demographics is not a risk that appears suddenly. It is a megatrend that can be modeled well in advance.

— Jan Jakub ZombirtHighlighting the predictability and long-term nature of demographic changes for the real estate market.
DistantNews Editorial

Originally published by Rzeczpospolita in Polish. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.

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