Polarization and uncertainty mark Colombia's final election week

Colombia's presidential election, scheduled for May 31, 2026, is entering its final week amid intense polarization. Recent polls from sources like El Tiempo and international agencies reveal a close contest between the ruling party's candidate, Iván Cepeda, and right-wing aspirants Abelardo De la Espriella and Paloma Valencia.

A Guarumo poll shows Iván Cepeda leading with 37.1% of voter intention, followed by Abelardo De la Espriella at 27.5% and Paloma Valencia at 21.7%. This survey, conducted across 85 municipalities, suggests a second-round runoff is likely. In a potential runoff scenario, De la Espriella appears to have an edge over Cepeda, and Valencia also demonstrates competitive strength against the incumbent's candidate.

Another measurement by Reuters, using AtlasIntel data, presents an even tighter race. This poll places Cepeda at 38.7% and De la Espriella at 37.3%, indicating a technical tie. In a second round, the right-wing candidate is projected to win 50% of the vote compared to the left-wing aspirant's 41.3%. Reuters notes De la Espriella's commitment to ending negotiations, adopting a firm stance against crime and drug trafficking, offering incentives to private investors, and boosting the country's mining and energy sectors.

Analysis from Colombian and regional media suggests De la Espriella's rise has disrupted the campaign's balance. EL PAÍS América Colombia reported that while Cepeda maintains a lead in final poll snapshots, conservative votes are rapidly consolidating around the lawyer and businessman from Barranquilla. The campaign has also been marred by disputes over polls and digital disinformation, with El Tiempo debunking an AI-generated image falsely claiming Cepeda's first-round victory. Rejection polls reveal high polarization, with Cepeda, De la Espriella, and Valencia topping the list of candidates voters "will never vote for." With less than a week until the vote, the outcome remains uncertain, though trends point to a strengthening opposition and a highly competitive second round.