Poles Favor China as Future Global Hegemon, Poll Shows, But Prefer Western Ties

A recent poll reveals a significant shift in Polish public opinion regarding global power dynamics, with a majority now anticipating China's rise as the dominant world power in the 21st century. The survey, conducted by OGB for the National Polish American Foundation (NPAF), found that 51% of respondents believe China will emerge as the leading superpower, while 34% still favor the United States. Over 14% suggested neither country would achieve global hegemony.

The findings highlight a complex outlook on international relations, particularly concerning Poland's economic and military partnerships. While a majority of Poles (56%) advocate for strengthening economic ties with the European Union, only 16% see China as a preferred economic partner, and 27% favor the US. Militarily, China garners even less support, with just 8% of respondents preferring closer ties, compared to 47% for the EU and 44% for the US.

These perceptions come amid heightened global attention on the US-China rivalry, including recent high-level meetings. The survey also probed Polish attitudes toward a potential military conflict between the two superpowers. While 47% of respondents believe Poland should remain neutral, a near-equal portion (49%) would support the United States. Only a small fraction, 2.6%, would side with China.

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My opinion is that some Poles favor China over the US because America has poor PR here – especially since Donald Trump became US president again. At the same time, China is working very hard on its image as a future hegemon. The thing is, the West remains our natural ally: the European Union economically, the USA militarily. What is much more dangerous for me is that half of the respondents in this poll say 'we should not get involved,' and it seems to me that this is precisely the success China has worked for.

Łukasz Pawłowski, head of the OGB research firm, suggests that negative public relations surrounding the US, particularly during Donald Trump's presidency, may be influencing some Poles to favor China. He also notes China's concerted efforts to project an image of a future hegemon. However, Pawłowski emphasizes that Poland's natural allies remain in the West, with the EU for economic ties and the US for military security. He expresses concern that the significant portion of Poles favoring neutrality in a potential conflict reflects a successful Chinese strategy to foster disengagement from Western alliances.

Piotr Nowocień, founder of NPAF and a Polish entrepreneur based in Miami, urges Poland to deepen its economic cooperation with the US. He points out that despite Poland being the world's 20th-largest economy, it ranks only 33rd as a US trading partner. Nowocień argues that increased economic collaboration would enhance Poland's security, a key concern for its citizens. He also suggests that the Trump administration is largely composed of business-minded individuals.

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The results indicate that Poland should deepen economic cooperation with the USA. We are the 20th largest economy in the world, but only the 33rd trading partner of the United States. As close allies, we should be at least in the top ten, not the fourth decade, of the largest trading partners of the USA. Increasing economic cooperation also means increasing security – and that is what Poles expect.