Polish Banks Expected to Post Over 9 Billion PLN Profit, Surprising Analysts

Warsaw: Poland's banking sector is poised for another quarter of strong financial results, with forecasts suggesting a combined net profit of around 9.15 billion PLN for the nine largest listed banks in the second quarter of 2026. This projection indicates a notable 13% increase from the first quarter, though it marks a slight 1.5% decrease compared to the same period last year.

These results are particularly noteworthy given the significant increase in the corporate income tax (CIT) rate for commercial banks, which rose from 19% to 30% at the beginning of 2026. Data from the National Bank of Poland (NBP) shows that the sector paid 10.1 billion PLN in income tax from January to May 2026, a substantial jump from 6.8 billion PLN in the corresponding period of 2025.

Banks are also navigating the impact of lower interest rates. The NBP's reference rate, which averaged 5.43% in Q2 2025, stood at 3.75% in Q2 2026. Analysts predict the total interest income for the nine major banks in Q2 2026 will be approximately 21.7 billion PLN, a marginal 0.3% increase from Q1 but a 2.3% year-on-year decline. However, banks continue to benefit from a substantial portfolio of loans issued during periods of higher interest rates, especially those with fixed rates.

A significant factor stabilizing the sector's performance is the diminishing impact of Swiss franc (CHF) mortgage provisions. Costs related to CHF loans, which previously consumed billions of zlotys quarterly, have significantly decreased. In Q2 2026, the four largest banks incurred just over 1 billion PLN in CHF-related costs, a sharp contrast to the 3.1 billion PLN recorded a year prior. Furthermore, commission income is projected to rise to around 5 billion PLN in Q2, an increase of about 2% from the previous quarter and 6.2% year-on-year, driven by increased customer activity and sales of investment and insurance products.