Polish companies deliver a string of earnings surprises. Who performed best?

Poland's earnings season is nearing its end, but the Warsaw Stock Exchange has already produced several positive surprises. A number of companies reported results well above what analysts had expected.

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Compared with market expectations, CD Projekt's second-quarter results proved exceptionally good. They were also a positive surprise for me, so I decided to raise my forecasts for this year.

CD Projekt delivered one of the biggest shocks among the country's largest listed companies. The maker of the cult Witcher franchise recorded 143 million zlotys in net profit in the second quarter. Its first-half profit reached nearly a quarter of a billion zlotys, despite the absence of major recent premieres.

The company continues to generate substantial sales from games in the Cyberpunk and Witcher universes. Adrian Kowollik, an analyst at East Value Research, called the second-quarter figures exceptionally strong compared with market expectations and raised his forecasts for the year. He expects the second half of 2026 to benefit from the planned October 20 Netflix debut of the anime series "Edgerunners 2," which he said could support sales of Cyberpunk 2077 in subsequent months.

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The second half of 2026 should be good for the company, primarily because of the planned October 20 debut of the anime series Edgerunners 2 on Netflix, which, like Edgerunners 1 in 2022, should have a positive impact on CP2077 sales in the following months.

Kowollik also cautioned that CD Projekt's valuation reflects expectations that its next major releases, scheduled for 2028 and later, will become major successes. Cognor also surprised on the upside, moving from a loss last year to 6.4 million zlotys in net profit. Its EBITDA rose 135% year on year to almost 51 million zlotys. The steel group benefited from new European Union regulations that lifted steel product prices.

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EBITDA in the third quarter should be better than a year earlier, but compared with the previous quarter it will be somewhat weaker because of maintenance shutdowns at our plants.

Cognor's management expects a significant improvement for the full year, although it anticipates a seasonally weaker third quarter because of maintenance shutdowns. Chief Financial Officer Krzysztof Zoła said third-quarter EBITDA should exceed last year's level but fall slightly from the previous quarter. Waste processor Mo-Bruk reported another strong improvement: second-quarter revenue climbed 52% year on year, while net profit almost doubled to 26.6 million zlotys. The company attributed the increase to higher waste-processing volumes and continued growth in service prices in key segments.

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The market situation looks much better than last year, so we maintain our expectation of a clear year-on-year improvement.