Polish debt collection market poised for continued growth amid global economic uncertainty

Poland's debt collection sector is experiencing robust growth, managing 20 million claims totaling over 202.4 billion Polish zlotys by the end of 2025. This represents a quarterly increase of 2.1% and a year-on-year rise of 3.2% in the number of claims handled. The value of these claims saw a 4.5% quarterly increase and an 8.7% year-on-year rise, according to a recent report from the Association of Financial Companies (ZPF) in Poland.

Experts from ZPF suggest that this expansion indicates the industry's successful response to market demands and its growing capacity to operate in a highly competitive and cost-intensive environment. From a macroeconomic perspective, a mature debt collection sector plays a vital role in ensuring the recovery of receivables, thereby supporting the liquidity of economic transactions. This function is particularly crucial during times of heightened uncertainty, when individuals and businesses increasingly report unpredictability and volatility.

Globally, however, the outlook for business insolvencies is less optimistic. A report by Allianz Trade projects a 6% increase in global business insolvencies in 2026, mirroring the 2025 trend. This marks the fifth consecutive year of rising bankruptcies, with stabilization expected at a high level in 2027. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East exacerbates this risk, not only through direct disruptions like fuel price hikes and supply chain interruptions but also through long-term effects such as increased inflation, tighter financial conditions, and deteriorating business liquidity, especially for low-margin sectors unable to pass on higher costs.

Allianz Trade estimates that 2.2 million jobs worldwide are directly threatened by this projected 6% increase in corporate failures. The sectors most at risk of job losses due to insolvencies include construction, retail trade, and services. Europe is particularly vulnerable, with an estimated 1.3 million jobs potentially affected, placing it at the forefront of global job losses linked to business closures. Recent macroeconomic data also paints a concerning picture for the global economy, with rising inflation and economic stagnation. In the Eurozone, the composite PMI fell to 47.5 points in May from 48.8 in April, reaching a 31-month low, signaling a deepening decline in services activity and a slowdown in manufacturing output growth.