Polish Poll: Civic Coalition Leads, Law and Justice Declines as Confederation Gains

A recent poll conducted by IBRiS between July 29 and August 3 indicates a shifting political landscape in Poland. Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO) remains the frontrunner, with 27.5% of respondents indicating they would vote for the party. This represents a marginal decrease of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month's survey.

The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party, led by Jarosław Kaczyński, has experienced a significant drop in support, now polling at 16.9%. This is a substantial decline of 7.2 percentage points compared to the survey conducted a month prior. Meanwhile, the Confederation party is showing considerable growth, gaining 0.7 percentage points to reach 14.4% support, narrowing the gap with PiS.

Other parties are also vying for parliamentary representation. Konfederacja Korony Polskiej has garnered 9.4% support, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. Mateusz Morawiecki's new association, Rozwój Plus, has entered the rankings with 7.8% support, positioning it slightly above the threshold for parliamentary funding. Nowa Lewica (New Left) is also projected to enter parliament with 7.6% of the vote, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points.

Parties failing to meet the electoral threshold include PSL (4%), Partia Razem (2.3%), and Polska 2050 (1.4%). Notably, Rozwój Plus emerged as the leading "second choice" party, with 17.5% of respondents indicating they would vote for it if their preferred party were not running. The survey involved 1,000 Poles through computer-assisted telephone interviews.