Poll: AfD remains significantly ahead of CDU in Saxony-Anhalt

The Alternative for Germany (AfD) party maintains a substantial lead over its rivals in Saxony-Anhalt, according to a recent poll released five weeks before the state election. The "Sachsen-AnhaltTREND" survey, conducted by Infratest dimap for regional broadcasters and newspapers, shows the AfD securing 41 percent of the vote. This places the party well ahead of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), led by Minister-President Sven Schulze, which garnered 24 percent.

The poll indicates a decline for the CDU, losing two percentage points since the last survey in May. Other parties also show shifts: The Left remains strong with 13 percent, while the Social Democrats (SPD) are at 7 percent. The Green Party has a chance to enter the state parliament with 5 percent, but the Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) would narrowly miss the 5 percent threshold, falling short at 4 percent. The FDP, currently part of the governing coalition, is not listed separately due to its low support.

Public dissatisfaction with the current state government, a coalition of the CDU, SPD, and FDP, is on the rise. Only 29 percent of respondents expressed satisfaction with the government's work. Potential parliamentary majorities could be formed by the CDU in coalition with the SPD and The Left, or alternatively with the AfD. However, the state CDU has stated it will not cooperate with either The Left or the AfD, and public opinion in Saxony-Anhalt appears to be largely skeptical of such alliances.

When asked which party should lead the next state government, the AfD and CDU are nearly tied, with 44 percent favoring the AfD and 43 percent supporting the CDU. Despite increased name recognition, only 29 percent of voters are satisfied with CDU candidate Sven Schulze, while 35 percent are satisfied with AfD challenger Ulrich Siegmund. The AfD also leads significantly in perceived party competence, with 36 percent believing they are most capable of solving the state's key issues, compared to 16 percent for the CDU.