Poll: Center-right coalition with Vannacci would win, but lose votes

A recent poll by Nando Pagnoncelli indicates that Italy's center-right coalition, if it includes the controversial candidate Roberto Vannacci, would secure a victory in the upcoming elections. However, the coalition as a whole is projected to experience a slight decrease in overall votes. Fratelli d'Italia, the leading party within the coalition, is expected to lose 0.5% of its support, settling at 26.5%. Similarly, the Lega party is forecast to drop by 0.5% to 5.1%. Forza Italia and Noi Moderati are predicted to remain stable at 8.3% and 0.9% respectively.

In contrast, Vannacci's independent list, 'Futuro Nazionale,' shows significant growth, climbing 1.1% to reach 7.1%. This surge positions Vannacci's movement as a substantial force, notably surpassing the Lega's projected support. The poll highlights a potential shift in the coalition's internal balance, with Vannacci's candidacy drawing attention and potentially votes away from traditional parties.

On the opposition side, the Democratic Party (Pd) and the Five Star Movement (M5S) are expected to remain stable, holding 20.1% and 14.5% of the vote, respectively. Other opposition parties like Avs, Italia Viva, and Azione also show stable or declining trends. The poll suggests that a broad center-right coalition, including Vannacci's list, would garner 47.9% of the vote. This figure would narrowly defeat the traditional center-right bloc (40.8%) and the progressive coalition (44.6%).

The analysis points to a complex electoral landscape, shaped by internal coalition dynamics and the rise of populist figures. Recent political events, including government defeats on electoral law and controversies surrounding legal cases, have intensified political clashes, setting the stage for a potentially turbulent election campaign.