Poll: Özgür Özel's Potential New Party Leads AKP, Kılıçdaroğlu's CHP Falls Below Threshold

A new poll by MetroPoll reveals a significant shift in Turkey's political landscape, suggesting a potential new party formed by Özgür Özel could emerge as a leading force. The "Turkey's Pulse" survey, conducted between June 15-25, 2026, with 1165 participants, indicates that if Özel were to establish his own party and compete against Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu's CHP, his new party would capture 33.8% of the vote.

This hypothetical scenario places Özel's potential party ahead of the ruling AKP, which polls at 27% in this specific contest. Meanwhile, the CHP under Kılıçdaroğlu's leadership, described as "absolute nullity" following leadership changes, is projected to secure a mere 5% of the vote. This outcome suggests a substantial portion of the electorate might be looking for alternatives beyond the traditional CHP structure.

In a broader electoral context, the poll also assessed current party standings without the hypothetical new party. In this scenario, the AKP leads with 31.1% of the vote, while the CHP registers at 27.5%. The survey notes that the CHP's decline in support coincided with the AKP's simultaneous retreat following a "nullity decision" and subsequent leadership transition within the CHP. The distribution of "undecided," "unanswered," and "protest" votes was applied proportionally in these calculations, aiming to present a clearer picture of voter intentions.