Poll: Poles prefer a right-wing coalition to a Civic Coalition-Confederation alliance

Poles would more often choose a right-wing coalition over a possible alliance between the Civic Coalition and Confederation, according to an SW Research poll for Rzeczpospolita. The question asked which of two possible coalitions would be better for Poland’s interests.

The coalition of Law and Justice, Confederation and the Confederation of the Polish Crown received 27.8% support in the comparison. It could potentially also include Mateusz Morawiecki’s Rozwój Plus. A Civic Coalition-Confederation alliance was preferred by 23.9% of respondents. Another 23.1% judged the two arrangements similarly, while 25.2% had no view.

The polling picture suggests that Civic Coalition would remain the strongest individual party, with roughly 28% to 30% support. Law and Justice would receive about 20% to 22%, Confederation 13% to 15%, and the Confederation of the Polish Crown 7% to 9%. Rozwój Plus could reach 4% to 6%. Taken together, those parties could give the right a parliamentary majority.

The current governing coalition, by contrast, would not have a clear path to remain in power based on these figures. Only Civic Coalition and New Left appear secure in parliament. The Polish People’s Party is hovering around, and often below, the electoral threshold, while Poland 2050 has marginal support of 1% to 2%. The Left-wing Razem party is also near the threshold.

Seat simulations indicate that Civic Coalition and Confederation could also assemble a majority, with a number of seats similar to that of the current governing coalition. Civic Coalition currently distances itself from cooperation with the formation led by Sławomir Mentzen and Krzysztof Bosak, although Confederation and Mentzen’s New Hope have not unequivocally ruled out such an alliance. The right-wing coalition was rated most favorably by respondents aged up to 24, at 44%, while the Civic Coalition-Confederation option was favored by 25% of those aged 50 and over.