Poll Shows Technical Tie Between Fujimori and Sánchez Hours Before Peru's Presidential Runoff

Peru stands on the brink of a presidential election with a new private poll revealing a virtual tie between the two leading candidates, Keiko Fujimori and Roberto Sánchez. The survey, conducted by Ipsos, shows Fujimori with 44.1% of voter intention and Sánchez with 43.7%, a difference of just 0.4 percentage points.

This narrow margin places the election outcome within the survey's 1.5% margin of error, indicating a technical tie. The poll, conducted confidentially on Saturday with 4,032 participants, differs slightly from Ipsos's previous projection earlier in the week, which had Sánchez slightly ahead. The results, when projected to valid votes, suggest 50.2% for Fujimori and 49.8% for Sánchez.

However, Ipsos cautioned that a significant portion of voters remain undecided, with a notable percentage of blank and null votes expected. Historically, these factors have played a crucial role in Peru's close presidential runoffs. The company noted that in the last three runoff elections, which Fujimori ultimately lost, blank and null votes accounted for 6-7% of the total.

"If the trend repeats, there could still be between 5% and 6% of electors who could tip the balance one way or the other," Ipsos stated. Other factors that could sway the result include voter turnout and the participation of Peruvians residing abroad, who were not included in this particular simulation. The projection confirms that the election is likely to be decided by a very slim margin, similar to the close contests that saw Fujimori narrowly defeated in previous elections.

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If the trend repeats, there could still be between 5% and 6% of electors who could tip the balance one way or the other.