Polls: Civic Coalition leads, but right-wing bloc likely to win most seats

Current polling data indicates that the Civic Coalition (KO) would likely win Poland's next parliamentary elections, projected for autumn 2027, but would face significant challenges in forming a governing majority. The KO currently garners around 30% of voter support. While this would place them as the leading party, their potential coalition partners face uncertainty. Only New Left appears to have a relatively secure parliamentary presence, with support ranging from 5-8%. The Polish People's Party (PSL) is hovering around the electoral threshold, securing 2-5% in various polls, while Poland 2050 fails to consistently reach the 3% threshold required for state funding.

These projections suggest that recreating the current ruling coalition after 2027 seems improbable under present conditions. Instead, polls consistently show a right-wing bloc securing the majority of parliamentary seats. The Law and Justice party (PiS) typically ranks second with 23-25% support. However, two polls conducted before the PiS party split indicated a drop in support for Jarosław Kaczyński's party below 20%, with Mateusz Morawiecki's potential new party achieving around 6% and entering parliament.

Konfederacja consistently ranks third in polls, with support between 12-15%. Grzegorz Braun's Konfederacja Korony Polskiej also appears likely to enter parliament, securing 7-10% support depending on the poll. Razem, led by Adrian Zandberg and Aleksandra Owca, is also competing to cross the electoral threshold, similar to the PSL.

The analysis of these poll numbers, including projections for parliamentary seats, suggests two potential majority coalitions: a coalition of PiS with both Konfederacja factions (potentially including Morawiecki's party post-PiS split), or a coalition between KO and Konfederacja. Following the presidential election loss by KO candidate Rafał Trzaskowski, there were speculations about a government reconstruction potentially replacing Prime Minister Donald Tusk. While such rumors are not currently prominent, Radosław Sikorski has solidified his government position, assuming the role of deputy prime minister after a summer 2025 reconstruction. During the presidential election campaign, particularly before the second round, Sikorski attempted to appeal to some Konfederacja voters for Trzaskowski.