Polls put right-winger Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of Lula in Brazil runoff for first time

For the first time in Brazil's presidential campaign, a poll has placed Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in a possible second round. The BTG/Nexus survey gives Bolsonaro 46% and Lula 45% for the October 25 runoff.

The result remains a technical tie, but it breaks the slight advantage Lula had held in earlier measurements. In the first round, Lula remains at 39%, unchanged from the previous week, while Bolsonaro rises from 33% to 35%.

Centrist candidate Augusto Cury remains in third place, though his support has fallen from 11% to 9%. Other polls have also shown Lula and Bolsonaro tied at 45%, but the new feature in this survey is Bolsonaro's lead.

The poll comes as a damaging internal dispute at Brazil's Supreme Court intensifies. Justice Alexandre de Moraes has been publicly linked to banker Daniel Vorcaro, the owner of Banco Master, who is detained in a fraud case described in the article as unprecedented in scale. A police report disclosed messages sent by Vorcaro to a number attributed to Moraes, asking the judge to halt an investigation that later led to his arrest.

Justice André Mendonça, who is handling the fraud case and previously served as justice minister under Jair Bolsonaro, lifted the secrecy order covering the material. Brazilian diplomatic sources told Clarín that Mendonça had “clearly adopted an electoral position,” while arguing that this did not remove Moraes's responsibility for his alleged ties to the banker. The controversy deepened after reports that Moraes's wife's law firm had secured a multimillion-real contract with Vorcaro's bank. Flávio Bolsonaro also appears in the case through disclosed conversations showing a close relationship with Vorcaro, who financed a documentary about his father, titled Dark Horse.

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clearly adopted an electoral position