Power prices on Poland’s exchange hit a three-year high. Will electricity bills rise?

Electricity prices on Poland’s power exchange have reached their highest level in three years, sending an unfavorable signal to millions of households and businesses.

The average day-ahead price rose to 583.66 złoty per megawatt-hour in August, an increase of 92.97 złoty from July. Trading volume also increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.38 terawatt-hours, its highest level since January 2024.

Day-ahead prices matter to companies that use the market to complete their energy purchases. They also affect bills for consumers with dynamic tariffs and for prosumers. Longer-term contracts remain more important for most household tariffs, because energy companies use them when submitting applications for next year’s regulated prices.

The weighted average price of a 2027 electricity contract rose by 31.50 złoty during August to 495.52 złoty per MWh. A year earlier, the comparable price stood at 419 złoty, raising the prospect of significantly higher consumer tariffs. The head of Poland’s Energy Regulatory Office approves tariffs at the end of each year using market data, although energy companies may face pressure to limit increases ahead of an election year.

Gas prices are moving higher as well. August gas trading volume fell 54.4% from a year earlier to 7.3 TWh, while the spot price rose to 280.22 złoty per MWh. The 2027 forward contract averaged 214.20 złoty per MWh, up 31.77 złoty from July. Buyers are delaying purchases while they wait for prices to fall, a move linked in the article to the war in the Middle East. European gas prices exceeded 70 euros per MWh at the start of September, their highest level since the first weeks of that conflict.