PP and Vox Top 50% of Vote Share for the First Time Amid Ceuta Crisis

The Ceuta crisis has not produced an electoral tsunami, but it has strengthened the right. A 40dB barometer places the People’s Party and Vox together at 50.2% of estimated support, the first time the two parties have crossed the 50% mark during the current parliamentary term.

The People’s Party remains the largest party, with 32.4%, up four-tenths of a point from July and matching its best result of the year. The PSOE stands at 27.6%, down four-tenths and 4.8 points behind the PP. The gap between the two parties has widened by eight-tenths in favour of Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s party.

Vox records the strongest rise among the main parties, increasing from 17.2% to 17.8%. Its current estimate is 5.4 points above its result in the 2023 general election, making it the only one of the three leading parties to improve on that result in the 40dB series.

The left loses ground across its main parties. The PSOE, Sumar and Podemos together account for 36.1% of estimated support. The fieldwork began a month after the Ceuta crisis erupted, allowing views of the events to settle before the survey closed. It did not include the later publication of a police report pointing to the involvement of Moroccan agents, a claim that conflicts with the government’s previous effort to absolve Morocco of responsibility.