'Premature and disconnected': Gulf states see Trump Abraham Accords demand as empty bargaining chip

Gulf states are unlikely to take US President Donald Trump's demand for them to join the Abraham Accords seriously, with regional experts describing the condition as "premature and disconnected" from current realities. Trump had publicly stated that a deal with Tehran would hinge on Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other Gulf nations normalizing ties with Israel.

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premature and disconnected

This demand, first made public by Trump, was reportedly rejected by mediator Islamabad. While some countries previously expressed willingness to normalize ties with Israel, it was contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state, a condition that remains unmet. Experts suggest that many in the Persian Gulf view Trump's proposal as out of step with post-war regional dynamics.

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I’m not sure we should make the deal if they don’t… join the Abraham Accords.

According to Mojtaba Dehghani, a senior political analyst, nations like Doha and Muscat are prioritizing the construction of a regional balance to restrain both Iran and Israel. They are less inclined to join a bloc perceived as explicitly anti-Iranian or pro-Israel. Dehghani noted that the "sudden reintroduction of the Abraham Accords framework may raise more questions about Trump’s broader strategic intentions than strengthen support for a deal itself."

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Across much of the Persian Gulf, the proposal is viewed as premature and somewhat disconnected from post-war realities.

Dr. Arash Azizi, an expert on the region, expressed doubt that Trump or regional countries are taking the demand seriously, especially given Israel's current policies and its prime minister's indictment for war crimes. While new normalization agreements seem unlikely, Dehghani pointed out that the United Arab Emirates, already a party to the accords, has more to lose and considers Israel's security role in its plans to become a regional hub. Abu Dhabi's calculations also involve its influential competitor, Riyadh, and the potential for a weakened but intact Islamic Republic to disrupt shipping routes.

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Doha, and Muscat are currently more focused on constructing a regional balance that restrains both Iran and Israel, rather than joining a clearly anti-Iranian or pro-Israel bloc.