President Duda's Plan for Right-Wing Divisions: Replacing Jarosław Kaczyński?

The Polish political landscape is currently defined by significant internal strife within the dominant Law and Justice (PiS) party. The party faces a major challenge as former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki establishes his own parliamentary club, a move that has led to the secession of dozens of parliamentarians. This internal division places PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński in a precarious position, with the party's support visibly declining in recent opinion polls.

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PiS is falling apart. You have to live.

Recent polling data from IBRIS for Polsat News indicates a sharp drop in PiS's support, placing it at 16.9 percent. This figure shows a narrow 2.5 percentage point lead over the Confederation party. Furthermore, a new group, Rozwój Plus, formed by the seceding MPs, has entered the polls with 7.8 percent support, capturing the fifth spot. The ruling coalition, led by Civic Coalition with 35.38 percent support, would not secure a governing majority even with the New Left (8.61 percent), which is the only other party in the current coalition expected to cross the electoral threshold.

Political scientists observe that while Civic Coalition and Donald Tusk may see short-term gains from the PiS conflict, President Andrzej Duda could emerge as a long-term beneficiary. Professor Antoni Dudek of Cardinal Stefan Wyszyński University suggests that Duda might position himself as a unifying figure for the right-wing. "Long-term, Karol Nawrocki gains, because the right begins to perceive the president as a patron who can unite it," Dudek told Rzeczpospolita, referring to the President by his first name.

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In the short term, Civic Coalition and Donald Tusk benefit from the PiS-Mateusz Morawiecki dispute, because the Southern Hospital is no longer being discussed. In the long term, however, Karol Nawrocki gains, because the right begins to perceive the president as a patron who can unite it.

Sources close to President Duda indicate that the Presidential Palace remains open to dialogue with all conservative circles aiming to change Poland. However, the President is reportedly not engaging in internal party disputes but is seeking allies for his legislative initiatives. He is maintaining distance from the conflict between PiS and Rozwój Plus, as well as from disputes within the Confederation parties. "The president knows that he was elected head of state thanks to the voters of the conservative camp and will not engage in party disputes. The enemy is elsewhere, and how the right-wing formations arrange themselves is not the role of the first citizen of the Republic of Poland," a source from Duda's circle stated.

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The president knows that he was elected head of state thanks to the voters of the conservative camp and will not engage in party disputes. The enemy is elsewhere, and how the right-wing formations arrange themselves is not the role of the first citizen of the Republic of Poland.