Private Analysts Lower Mexico's 2026 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.1%

As analysts in Mexico adjust their economic outlook, the latest Citi Mexico Expectations Survey reveals a downward revision for the country's GDP growth in 2026. The median forecast now stands at 1.1%, a slight decrease from the previous 1.2%, painting a picture of cautious optimism among private sector forecasters. While the government aims for a more robust growth between 1.8% and 2.8%, private firms like BNP Paribas, GBM, and BX+ project a more modest 1.5%, with some, like Signum Research, forecasting as low as 0.5%.

This divergence in expectations highlights the ongoing economic uncertainties that Mexico faces. The report also indicates that the Bank of Mexico's (Banxico) monetary policy rate is unlikely to see any significant shifts in 2026 and 2027, with the median expectation for the end of 2026 remaining at 6.5%. This stability in interest rates, while potentially reassuring for some sectors, also suggests a cautious approach to stimulating economic activity amidst the revised growth projections.

Furthermore, the survey points to a strengthening peso, with analysts anticipating it to trade around 18 units per dollar by the end of 2026, an improvement from previous forecasts. Inflation expectations also saw a slight decrease, with the median projection for general inflation at year-end 2026 at 4.3%. These indicators, while mixed, provide a complex economic landscape for Mexico as it navigates global financial currents and domestic challenges. From our perspective at ABC, these adjustments underscore the need for continued vigilance and strategic economic planning to meet both government targets and private sector realities.