Putin believes Ukraine victory is possible militarily; ISW points to distorted battlefield perceptions

Russian President Vladimir Putin remains convinced that Russia can achieve victory in Ukraine through military means, a belief that persists despite increasing warnings about the economic burden of the conflict. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggests that Putin's unwavering stance may stem from a distorted perception of the situation on the battlefield.

According to ISW analysis, Putin is not heeding the growing concerns from Russian economic officials regarding the excessive strain of war expenditures on the nation's economy. Analysts believe this position could be linked to a skewed understanding of the front lines, possibly due to embellished information being presented about the Russian military's progress in Ukraine. Consequently, Putin might perceive Russia as being on the verge of victory, even if the reality on the ground differs significantly.

"Putin's misunderstanding of the situation on the battlefield likely contributes to his determination to maintain high war spending and continue the war to achieve his goals by military means," ISW stated. The analysts also noted that reducing defense spending would pose risks for Russia. A decrease in military funding could weaken Russian forces in certain areas, potentially allowing Ukraine to exploit these vulnerabilities, launch strikes deep into Russian territory, and conduct counterattacks, thereby expanding current gains and further complicating Russia's military position.

Reuters previously reported that Russia's economic growth is slowing due to the war, sanctions, and Ukrainian drone attacks on critical infrastructure, with GDP growth projected at only 0.4% this year. Russian business representatives interviewed by Reuters believe that ending the war and resuming negotiations with the West would be the most effective way to support the economy.

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Putin's misunderstanding of the situation on the battlefield likely contributes to his determination to maintain high war spending and continue the war to achieve his goals by military means.